HDFC Securities expects India GDP to moderate to 6.4% in 2024-25

HDFC Securities Projects India's GDP Growth at 6.4% for 2024-25.

Expert Analysis:

• GDP Growth Forecast: HDFC Securities expects India’s GDP to grow 6.4% in 2024-25, with downside risks from weak urban demand and slow private capex revival.

• RBI’s Growth Revision: RBI revised its growth forecast to 6.6% from 7.2%, following India’s GDP growth of 5.4% in Q2 2024-25, lower than the 7% forecast.

• Future Growth Projection: HDFC Securities projects a GDP growth of 6.7% in 2025-26.

• Urban vs Rural Consumption: Urban consumption is slowing due to inflation, while rural demand is improving with better monsoons and crops. MNREGA demand is moderating, indicating a positive labour market.

• Investment and Sectoral Growth: Investments will drive growth. Discretionary consumption is stronger than staples. HDFC Securities expects volume-led growth in FY 2026, driven by BFSI, industrials, cement, energy, and IT sectors.

• Capital Expenditure and GDP Growth: Central government capex was muted in the first half of 2024-25 but is expected to pick up in the second half. India's GDP grew 8.2% in FY 2023-24, with the Economic Survey projecting 6.5-7% growth for 2024-25.