Nayara's Future Unsure – India May Bargain With US For Russian Crude

​Expert Analysis:

• Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery—India’s second‑largest single‑site facility and 49% owned by sanctioned Russian giant Rosneft—faces an uncertain future amid renewed US pressure to curb Russian oil imports, with President Trump threatening 25% tariffs unless India significantly reduces purchases.​

• India imports nearly one‑third of its crude from Russia, but volumes fell to $2.7 billion in December 2025 (lowest in three years), and analysts believe India will negotiate with the US to secure limited Russian crude access for Nayara while balancing $500 billion in US purchases over five years to avoid penalties.